After two decades of relatively flat demand, the U.S. electricity system is projected to grow significantly over the next few years. Utility load forecasts project an increase in peak demand on the order of 166 GW by 2030, a 20% increase from estimated peak load in 2025. Data centers are expected to account for roughly 55% of projected demand growth, with other new large loads accounting for most of the remaining growth.

The lack of historical data on many of these new types of facilities and the rapidly evolving technology driving this load growth present novel challenges for load forecasters and grid planners. This report, published by the Energy Systems Integration Group’s Large Loads Task Force and led Grid Strategies staff, presents nine findings on current load forecasting practices and offers recommendations to more accurately measure—and reduce—load forecast uncertainty.